Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Poll Position

Governor, we have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that you're up in the latest polls. The bad news is...you're down in the latest polls.

At least according to the head-scratching mixed messages slowly filtering in from pulsetakers in the aftermath of the June 3 New Hampshire debate.

First, the good news. On Monday, a CNN/WMUR poll in New Hamp suggested The Guv is now netting as high as 11 percent (when excluding Al Gore) of Granite State voters. In response, BR4P headquarters breathlessly exclaimed "Richardson now in top tier" in a press release that points out that the poll shows B-Rich as close as two percentage points from John Edwards. A recent LA Times/Bloomberg Poll also had Richardson earning a point (from 3 to 4) between April 5-9 and June 7-10 (What, you guys too good for May?).

Now, the bad news. The LA/Bloom poll has Joe Biden (Richardson's primary competition for "top of the second-tier," if not VP consideration) surging ahead of The Guv with a four-point swing (from 1 to 5). Also, a recent AP/Ipsos Poll had Richardson slipping a point (from 4 to 3) between March 5-7 and June 4-6 (they're too good for May and April, apparently).

But the worst news comes from a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll that has the Richardson campaign in a death spiral, dropping three points (from 4 to 1) between May 15-16 and June 5-6. It's the rough equivalent of Hillary Clinton announcing her support for genocide as a solution to overpopulation in China, subsequently dropping her from 40 percent to 10.

What's worse, the perceived drop in the Fox poll means that The Guv has theoretically fallen into a three-way tie for last place alongside Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and "Other". I'm not sure which is worse: being tied with Gravel or Other. Although people do seem to like Other's position on ambiguity.

Then again, it is Fox News we're talking about. Nevertheless, Richardson will have to have a strong showing at next month's debate in South Carolina. Otherwise he runs the risk of proving Fox News right and thus negating all of human existence.

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